AXAU01 ADRM 181845
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1845 UTC 18/03/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone Megan
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.5S
Longitude: 136.6E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (213 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: 
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  19/0000: 16.9S 136.3E:     040 (070):  030  (055):  992
+12:  19/0600: 17.2S 136.0E:     050 (090):  030  (055):  993
+18:  19/1200: 17.4S 135.5E:     055 (100):  030  (055):  994
+24:  19/1800: 17.4S 134.9E:     060 (110):  030  (055):  995
+36:  20/0600: 17.3S 133.6E:     075 (140):  025  (045):  997
+48:  20/1800: 17.2S 132.0E:     090 (170):  025  (045):  998
+60:  21/0600: 17.0S 130.4E:     120 (225):  020  (035): 1000
+72:  21/1800: 16.7S 129.2E:     145 (270):  020  (035):  999
+96:  22/1800: 16.6S 127.1E:     185 (340):  020  (035):  999
+120: 23/1800: 16.6S 125.8E:     200 (370):  020  (035):  998
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan at category 3 (75 kn) intensity made landfall at
0600 UTC on the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. 

Megan continues to weaken as it tracks inland of the Gulf of Carpentaria coast,
though the low level centre position is becoming more uncertain as the cloud
signature loses coherence. Position is based on proximal surface observations,
peripheral radar data, and extrapolation. 

Dvorak analysis is now not applicable with the centre over land, with most
objective guidance similar. Intensity is now estimated to be at around 40 knots
based on an inland decay model. All surrounding observation sites are no longer
showing gale force winds as the system tracks further inland. 

The system is expected to be downgraded to a tropical low during this morning
before it tracks west through the Northern Territory over the next few days
under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. Heavy rainfall will
accompany the low as it tracks over northern Australia in the following days. 

The low may approach the Kimberley coast late in the week, but
reintensification over water is not expected in the next 7 days.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.