Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 28 December 2022
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 31 December 2022.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough is expected to become established over the Gulf of Carpentaria and extend into the northwest Coral Sea during the weekend. With the monsoon trough in the region the likelihood of tropical activity in the northern Coral Sea increases from early next week.

However, there are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop during the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/