Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Saturday 31 December 2022
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 3 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough extends across the Gulf of Carpentaria and into the northwest Coral Sea. Squally thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the monsoon trough, but there are currently no significant tropical lows in the region. A weak low may form over the far southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria or adjacent parts of Cape York Peninsula early this week, however it is not expected to significantly develop prior to moving inland.

Late next week the monsoon strengthens further over Far North Queensland and over northern parts of the Coral Sea. There is the potential for a tropical low to form and develop over the Coral Sea and this region will be closely monitored over the next week for any potential tropical cyclone development.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/