Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Sunday 1 January 2023
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 4 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough extends across the Gulf of Carpentaria and into the northwest Coral Sea. Squally thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of the monsoon trough, but there are currently no significant tropical lows in the region. A weak low may form over the far southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria or adjacent parts of Cape York Peninsula early this week, however it is not expected to significantly develop prior to moving inland.

There is the potential for a tropical low to form and develop over the Coral Sea next weekend as the monsoon strengthens in the region. If a tropical low does develop it is likely to move southeast and away from the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/