Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:34 pm EST on Tuesday 3 January 2023
for the period until midnight EST Friday 6 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant tropical lows in the region. A surge in the monsoon is expected to move into the northwest Coral Sea on Thursday and a tropical low could form offshore from the Townsville region on Friday. The low will move southeast and away from the Queensland coast and is not expected to pose a direct threat to the coast. The chances of it developing further into a tropical cyclone increases by Sunday before it moves out of the Australian region by Monday or Tuesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/