Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 5 January 2023
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 8 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A surge in the monsoon is expected to move into the northwest Coral Sea later today and strengthen on Friday. A tropical low is likely to form offshore from the Townsville region on Friday enhancing wind and rainfall near the coast south of the centre. The low will then move to the southeast and away from the Queensland coast on the weekend and is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

The likelihood of it developing into a tropical cyclone is Low on the weekend before it moves east of 160E and out of the Australian region by Monday and the likelihood returns to Very Low from Tuesday.

Likelihood of this being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Low

Sunday:

Low

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/