Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 6 January 2023
for the period until midnight EST Monday 9 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (07U) lies off the north Queensland coast, approximately 190 kilometres north-northeast of Townsville at 10am AEST Friday 6 January. The low is forecast to move to the southeast away from the Queensland coast and will likely be east of the Eastern Region by Sunday afternoon or by the latest by Monday morning.

Whilst the environmental conditions over the Coral Sea are not conducive for development into a tropical cyclone, intermittent periods of gales are possible well-offshore due to the surge of monsoonal north-westerly winds. Enhanced rainfall and thunderstorm activity is also expected over the Coral Sea with the passage of this tropical low.

Likelihood of this being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/