Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 10:13 am EST on Saturday 7 January 2023
for the period until midnight EST Monday 9 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (07U) lies off the north Queensland coast, approximately 590 kilometres east-northeast of Mackay near 20.0S, 154.7 at 10am AEST Saturday 7 January.

The low poses no threat to the Queensland coast as it is moving rapidly to the east southeast away from the coast and will likely be east of the Eastern Region on Sunday morning.

Gale-force southeasterly winds are occurring to the southwest of the low (being reported from Frederick Reef) and possibly to the northeast in a surge of monsoonal north-westerly winds. The circulation is not well-defined and is elongated (NW-SE), and a new centre is likely to develop later on Saturday. Hence, this is not expected to be a tropical cyclone. Refer to the marine warning at www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21091.shtml.

Likelihood of this being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Sunday:

Low

Monday:

Very Low

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/