Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:11 pm EST on Saturday 7 January 2023
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 10 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (07U) lies off the north Queensland coast, approximately 640 kilometres east of Mackay near 20.7S, 155.3E at 2pm AEST Saturday 7 January.

The low poses no threat to the Queensland coast as it is moving rapidly to the east- southeast away from the coast and will likely be east of the Eastern Region on Sunday morning.

Gale-force southeasterly winds have occurred southwest of the low (as reported from Frederick Reef) and also to the east in a surge of monsoonal north-westerly winds. The circulation is not well-defined being elongated (from NW to SE), and a new centre is likely to develop overnight. Hence, this is not expected to be a tropical cyclone. Refer to the marine warning at www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21091.shtml.

Likelihood of this being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Sunday:

Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/