Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 13 January 2023
for the period until midnight EST Monday 16 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A deepening trough is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the northeast Queensland coast this weekend. Refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/ for further information.

A tropical low could form within the trough later on the weekend and there is a Low likelihood from Tuesday 17 January to Friday 20 January that it will develop into a tropical cyclone. In the unlikely event it does develop into a tropical cyclone it is expected to move east and away from the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

A tropical low may form early next week in the eastern Coral Sea, well away from the Queensland coast. There is a Low likelihood of it developing into a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on either Tuesday 17 January or Wednesday 18 January before it moves east and out of the region.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/