Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Sunday 15 January 2023
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 18 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low is expected to form on Monday in the eastern Coral Sea, well away from the Queensland coast. It will initially be slow moving before heading east on Tuesday and moving out of the region on Wednesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Low

Wednesday:

Low

The monsoon trough is expected to form over the northern Coral Sea from Wednesday. A tropical low could form within the monsoon trough later in the week. If a tropical low does form, it will move east and away from the Queensland coast. There is a Low likelihood from Thursday 19 January to Sunday 22 January that it will develop into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/