Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:36 pm EST on Monday 16 January 2023
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 19 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low was located in the eastern Coral Sea near 15S 159E well away from the Queensland coast. It is expected to be slow-moving before tracking to the east later on Tuesday and them moving out of the Australian region (east of 160E) on Wednesday. Although it will be gradually developing over coming days, it is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone within the Australian region.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Tuesday:

Low

Wednesday:

Low

Thursday:

Very Low

A weak low lies near the Queensland coast between Townsviile and Mackay - refer to Severe Weather Warnings for Heavy Rainfall. The low is likely to become better defined within the monsoon trough over the northern Coral Sea on Thursday. From then it is expected to move to the east then southeast away from the Queensland coast. The risk of this developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Low from Friday 20 January. The risk increases to Moderate by Monday 23 January although there is significant uncertainty in the location and may move east of the Australian region by this time.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/