Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 17 January 2023
for the period until midnight EST Friday 20 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low was located in the eastern Coral Sea near 17S 157E well away from the Queensland coast. It is expected to move to the east and be out of the Australian region (east of 160E) on Wednesday. Although it will be gradually developing over coming days, it is unlikely to have sufficient time to develop into a tropical cyclone within the Australian region.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Wednesday:

Low

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

A tropical low is expected to develop within the monsoon trough in the northern Coral Sea on Thursday. It is expected to move to the east then southeast away from the Queensland coast and poses no threat to the coast. The risk of this developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Low from Thursday 19 January and then to Moderate on Friday 20 January before it moves east of the Australian region on Saturday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Low

Friday:

Moderate

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/