Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 12:21 pm EST on Wednesday 18 January 2023
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 21 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low located near 18S 148E at 10am on 18 December is expected to move northeast later today and curve towards the southeast on Thursday, while remaining well off the Queensland coast. The environmental conditions are conducive for the low to develop into a tropical cyclone over the far eastern parts of the Eastern Region, possibly on late Friday or early Saturday. The cyclone is expected to move into Fiji's area of responsibility by late Saturday.

The tropical cyclone is expected to move away from the Qld coast, hence it does not pose a threat to Qld mainland or the island communities.

There are no other significant systems in the region. The monsoon trough may realign over the northern tropics with increasing tropical activity over the far northwest Coral Sea region by early to mid week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Thursday:

Moderate

Friday:

High

Saturday:

High

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/