Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 19 January 2023
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 22 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low located approximately 500 km east of Cairns is expected to move southeast and further away from the Queensland coast. It is expected to strengthen into a tropical cyclone early on Saturday morning, shortly before moving out of the region.

The system will not have any direct impacts on the Queensland coast or islands.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday:

Mod

Saturday:

High

Sunday:

Very Low

There are no other significant systems in the region and none are expected to develop in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/