Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:33 pm EST on Saturday 21 January 2023
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 24 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low may form within the monsoon trough well away from the Queensland coast in the northeastern Coral Sea this weekend. It will move to the south southeast then turn to the southwest on Tuesday before weakening. It is not expected to be a tropical cyclone in the Australian region and won't have any direct impacts on the Queensland coast or islands.

There are no other significant systems in the region and none expected to develop in the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/