Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:00 pm EST on Sunday 22 January 2023
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 25 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough remins active over the northeastern Coral Sea. A tropical low may form within the trough in the vicinity of 14S 157E well away from the Queensland coast. It is likely to remain weak as it moves to the south southeast on Monday before dissipating on Tuesday. No impacts are expected on the Queensland coast or islands.

Otherwise east-southeasterly trade winds are likely to dominate across the region preventing the formation of any other tropical lows for the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/