Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Saturday 4 February 2023
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 7 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region at present. An active monsoon is extending across the tropics with increased shower and thunderstorm activity.

A tropical low may be developing near the far eastern boundary or moving westwards from Fiji's area of responsibility early next week. The low is expected to track westwards during the early part of the week, before curving towards the southeast around mid to late next week.

There is a risk that the environment could be conducive for the low to deepen in the Coral Sea around mid next week. The ratings for the low are expected to increase to Low on Wednesday 8th February, Moderate on Thursday 9th and Friday 10th February.

The low is forecast to remain well off the east coast of Qld with little or no impact.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/