Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 11:11 am EST on Sunday 5 February 2023
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 8 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Increased risk of a severe tropical cyclone to develop in the central Coral Sea region by mid week.

A tropical low is forming to the east of Eastern Region boundary, near Vanuatu. The low is expected to begin moving westwards from tomorrow and be located over the far eastern areas of the region by Tuesday. The low is expected to rapidly intensify to a tropical cyclone as it continues to move west on Wednesday.

By Wednesday night or early Thursday, it may become a severe tropical cyclone. There is considerable risk that the system could be close to the east coast of Queensland, off Mackay by Thursday next week. However, current model guidance indicate that the cyclone may curve towards to southeast, away from the coast from late Thursday or Friday. Based on this, a direct impact or landfall is not expected at this stage.

The ratings for the low are expected to increase to Moderate on Tuesday 7th February, and High from Wednesday 8th February onwards

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Moderate

Wednesday:

High

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/