Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:34 pm EST on Tuesday 7 February 2023
for the period until midnight EST Friday 10 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (14U) is forming in the northeastern Coral Sea, south of the Solomon Islands. This low is expected to move southwestwards today through to Wednesday in a favourable environment for further development. This low is forecast to approach but remain offshore of the central Queensland coast. On Thursday, the system is likely to begin tracking southeast, remaining well away from the Queensland coast. A direct impact or landfall is not expected for Queensland at this stage, however large waves and strong winds are likely with the passing of this system. The system is forecast to track near Norfolk Island this weekend.

The probability of the system developing into a tropical cyclone is High on Wednesday 8th, Thursday 9th, and Friday 10th February. The system is expected to move east of 160E (out of the Australian region) on Friday or Saturday, so the probability of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region decreases to Moderate on Saturday 11th February, and Very Low from Sunday 12th February.

A severe tropical cyclone is considered a risk from late Thursday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Wednesday:

High

Thursday:

High

Friday:

High

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/