Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 1:56 pm EST on Wednesday 8 February 2023
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 11 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle (14U) was located in the Coral Sea, moving in a general southwards direction and remaining well offshore of the Queensland coast. It is expected to curve towards the southeast, and move further away from coast on Thursday.

A direct tropical cyclone impact or landfall is not expected for the Queensland

coast. However, exposed east coastal areas may experience large waves and fresh

to strong winds with the passing of this system, particularly during Thursday

and Friday.

The probability of the system being a tropical cyclone in the region remains High till Friday 10th February, then decreasing to Very Low from Saturday 11th February onwards.

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Thursday:

High

Friday:

High

Potential Cyclones:

There are no other significant systems in the region and none are expected to develop in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/