Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 9 February 2023
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 12 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle continues to develop and is now at category two

intensity over the Coral Sea and expected to reach category three by Friday

morning. Gabrielle is expected to curve onto a southeasterly track today,

remaining well offshore of the Queensland east coast. Gabrielle is likely to

pass very close to Norfolk Island later on Saturday or early Sunday morning,

possibly whilst at category two intensity and then move away during Sunday.

Gabrielle is not directly expected to approach the Queensland coast. However,

exposed eastern coastal areas may experience large waves and fresh to strong

winds with the passing of this system, particularly during Thursday and Friday.

Norfolk Island can expect an impact on Saturday and Sunday.

The probability of the system being a tropical cyclone in the region remains High till Friday 10th February, then decreasing to Very Low from Saturday 11th February onwards.

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday:

High

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Potential Cyclones:

There are no other significant systems in the region and none are expected to develop in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/