Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 10:30 am EST on Friday 10 February 2023
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 12 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

At 10am AEST Friday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, category 3 was located in the central Coral Sea, approximately 1400 kilometres northwest of Norfolk Island. Severe Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is forecast to track to the southeast, remaining well offshore of the Queensland east coast. Gabrielle is likely to pass very close to Norfolk Island, while a category 2 system, with direct impacts expected over the weekend.

Gabrielle will remain well offshore of the Queensland coast. However, exposed eastern coastal areas are expected to experience large waves and fresh to strong winds with the passing of this system.

The probability of the system being a tropical cyclone in the region is High today, Friday 10th February. From Saturday 11th February, Gabrielle is likely to be to the east of the Australian region and hence ratings decrease to Very Low.

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Potential Cyclones:

There are no other significant systems in the region and none are expected to develop in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/