Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 5:11 pm EST on Friday 10 February 2023
for the period until midnight EST Monday 13 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

At 10am AEST Friday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, category 3, was located in the central Coral Sea, approximately 1300 kilometres northwest of Norfolk Island. Severe Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is forecast to track to the southeast, remaining well offshore of the Queensland east coast. Gabrielle is likely to pass very close to Norfolk Island.

The probability of the system being a tropical cyclone in the region is High today, Friday 10th February. From Saturday 11th February, Gabrielle is likely to be to the east of the Australian region and hence ratings decrease to Very Low.

For the latest information please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone.

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Potential Cyclones:

There are no other significant systems in the region and none are expected to develop in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/