Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 21 February 2023
for the period until midnight EST Friday 24 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant tropical lows in the region.

The trough across the northern Coral Sea is expected to become more active from late this week. A tropical low may form in the northwest Coral Sea early next week and move away from the coast to the southeast. Conditions are not particularly favourable for development of this system, but the tropical cyclone risk does increase slightly from early next week.

The probability of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region remains Very Low until Monday 27 February, then increases to Low on Tuesday 28 February.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/