Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 22 February 2023
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 25 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant tropical lows in the region.

The trough across the northern Coral Sea is expected to become more active later in the week. A tropical low may move east from the Gulf of Carpentaria into the northwest Coral Sea early next week and move to the southeast, away from the coast. Conditions are not particularly favourable for development of this system, but the tropical cyclone risk does increase slightly from early next week.

The probability of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region remains Very Low until Monday 27 February, then increases to Low on Tuesday 28 February and Wednesday 1 March.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/