Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 23 February 2023
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 26 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant tropical lows in the region.

The trough across the northern Coral Sea is expected to become more active over the weekend. A tropical low may form or move east into the northwest Coral Sea early next week and most likely move to the southeast, away from the coast. Conditions are marginally favourable for the development of this system, and the tropical cyclone risk does increase slightly from mid next week.

The risk this system being a tropical cyclone with the region is Very Low until Monday 27 February, then increases to Low from Tuesday 28 February to Thursday 2 March.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/