Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Saturday 25 February 2023
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 28 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

The trough across the northern Coral Sea is becoming more active, and a weak tropical low is expected to develop in the northwest Coral Sea over the weekend. There is high confidence that this system will move to the southeast, away from the Queensland coast.

The system is expected to develop only slowly in the short term. By mid-next week, however, conditions become more favourable and the tropical cyclone risk for the Eastern Region increases to Low from Wednesday 1 March to Saturday 4 March.

This system poses no direct threat to the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/