Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Sunday 26 February 2023
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 1 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant tropical lows in the region.

The monsoon trough extends across the northwestern Coral Sea. A weak tropical low is expected to develop along this trough during the next 24 hours. There is high confidence that this system will move to the east or southeast, away from the Queensland coast.

The system is expected to develop only slowly and is likely to move out of the Eastern Region around the middle of the week. The risk of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region during the next 7 days is Very Low.

This system poses no direct threat to the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/