Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 27 February 2023
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 2 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low lies just off the Queensland coast near 14.7S 146.7E at 1pm AEST. The low is forecast to track quickly away from the Queensland coast to the east-northeast over the next 24 to 36 hours before taking an east-southeast track once over the northern Coral Sea. Although it is a Very Low (<5%) risk chance of developing to be a tropical cyclone within the Eastern Region, as it moves further north it is expected to develop gales on the northern flank as it interacts with strong monsoonal westerly flow.

The system is expected to move out of the Eastern Region later on Wednesday or early on Thursday. The risk of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region during the next 7 days is Very Low.

This system poses no direct threat to the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/