Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 28 February 2023
for the period until midnight EST Friday 3 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low (18U) lies well to the east of the north Queensland coast near 12.3S 154.2E at 1pm AEST. The low is forecast to track quickly away from the Queensland coast to the east-northeast over the next 24 to 36 hours before taking an east-southeast track once over the northeast Coral Sea. The environment is unfavourable for development while in the Eastern Region and there is a Low risk it may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday before moving east of the region on Thursday. However, gales may develop on the northern flank as it interacts with strong monsoonal westerly flow on Wednesday.

This system poses no direct threat to the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Wednesday:

Low

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/