Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Saturday 11 March 2023
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 14 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant systems in the region and there is a Very Low likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region up to and including Wednesday 15 March.

A low may form next week around Vanuatu. While it is likely to remain east of the region, it is possible that it moves into the Coral Sea and develops further towards the end of next week. The likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region therefore increases to Low from Thursday 16 March to Saturday 18 March.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/