Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Sunday 12 March 2023
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 15 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant systems in the region and there is a Very Low likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region up to and including Friday 17 March.

A low is expected to form during the middle of the week near Vanuatu. While it is likely to remain east of the region, it is possible that it moves into the Coral Sea next weekend. The likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region increases to Low for Saturday 18 March and Sunday 19 March.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/