Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 14 March 2023
for the period until midnight EST Friday 17 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant systems in the region and there is a Very Low likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region up to and including Friday 17 March.

A tropical low is expected to form during the middle of the week near Vanuatu or New Caledonia. Whilst it is likely to remain east of the region throughout this week and into the weekend, it is possible that it moves westward and over the Coral Sea from Saturday 18 March. There is significant uncertainty in the timing of the low moving into the region which will depend greatly on where it initially forms and how far it tracks to the southeast over the next several days.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region increases to Low on Saturday 18 March and Sunday 19 March and to Moderate (approximately 25% risk) on Monday 20 March and Tuesday 21 March.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/