Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:50 pm EST on Thursday 16 March 2023
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 19 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low is forming near New Caledonia. It is likely to remain east of the region throughout this week and the weekend, there is a chance that it moves westward and over the Coral Sea from Monday 20 March. There is uncertainty in the timing of the low moving into the region and how favourable the environmental conditions will be for development. The likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region increases to Low on Monday 20 March, and to Moderate risk on Tuesday 21 March, Wednesday 22 March, and Thursday 23 March.

There are currently no other significant system expected in the region in the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/