Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 28 December 2022
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 31 December 2022.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie is located over the Barkly district, is expected to move into Western Australia during Thursday morning. The low is expected to remain over land while in the Northern Region.

Heavy rainfall and squally showers and thunderstorms are possible over the central districts of the NT. Refer to the latest warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/warnings/

Likelihood of this system tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Later this week the monsoon trough is expected to extend across the Gulf of Carpentaria. With the monsoon through in the region the likelihood of a tropical low developing in the Gulf of Carpentaria increases. If a tropical low develops, from next week, there is a low risk that it will remain over water long enough to become a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/