Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:57 pm CST on Thursday 29 December 2022
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 1 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie has moved over the Kimberley to the west of the Northern Region.

The monsoon trough extends across the Gulf of Carpentaria. With the monsoon through in the region the likelihood of a tropical low developing in the Gulf of Carpentaria increases. If a tropical low develops, from mid next week, there is a low risk that it will remain over water long enough to become a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of this system tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/