Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 1 January 2023
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 4 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough extends from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie in the Kimberley, across the Northern Territory and the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. Monsoonal squalls are occurring across waters adjacent to the Northern Territory however there are no significant tropical lows in the region.

A weak tropical low may form over the far southeastern parts of the Gulf of Carpentaria or adjacent parts of Cape York Peninsula on Tuesday or Wednesday. In the event this low does form, it is not expected to significantly develop before moving inland over Queensland by Thursday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/