Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Friday 6 January 2023
for the period until midnight CST Monday 9 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie) will move over the southwest of the Northern Territory during the weekend, dissipating by early next week. This system will not reintensify to be a tropical cyclone, however may bring heavy rainfall. Refer to the latest warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/warnings/

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop in the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/