Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 15 January 2023
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 18 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough is expected to develop in the Gulf of Carpentaria on Thursday and a tropical low could form within the trough on Friday or the weekend. However, any tropical low that forms has a Very Low likelihood of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/