Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 18 January 2023
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 21 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant systems in the region and none are expected to develop in the next three days.

The monsoon trough is expected to realign across the tropics during the weekend. Weak tropical low's may form along the monsoon trough in the Timor Sea and over the Arafura Sea or northern Gulf of Carpentaria during the weekend or early next week. The environmental conditions are not favourable for any low to develop into a tropical cyclone. The ratings for a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region is Very Low for the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/