Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Thursday 19 January 2023
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 22 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough is forming over the Gulf of Carpentaria and expected to extend into the Arafura Sea over the weekend. A weak tropical low may form within the trough in the Arafura Sea early next week. The tropical low is expected to remain weak as it then moves west. The likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region remains Very Low for the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/