Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:17 pm CST on Saturday 21 January 2023
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 24 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak low is forming within the monsoon trough near 12S 140E in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria. It is expected to move west passing to the north of the Top End coast on Sunday and Monday and then over the Timor Sea early on Tuesday and then out of the region on Wednesday. The low is expected to remain weak as it moves west and unlikely to intensify significantly until it leave the region.

There are no other significant lows expected in the region and the likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region remains Very Low for the next seven days

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/