Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 4 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 7 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no tropical lows in the region. An active monsoon is extending across the tropics with increased shower and thunderstorm activity. Weak transient lows may form along the trough in the Timor Sea and in the Gulf of Carpentaria over the weekend. None of the lows are expected to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/