Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 5 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 8 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

An active monsoon is extending across the tropics with increased shower and thunderstorm activity. A weak tropical low may form along the trough in the Timor Sea or Arafura Sea. The low is expected to move eastwards during the week and be located in the Gulf of Carpentaria by Thursday. The low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone. There are no other tropical systems in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/