Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Tuesday 7 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Friday 10 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low may move into the Gulf of Carpentaria or over the eastern parts of the Top End of the NT from late week or over the weekend. The low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone and is a Very Low risk.

Another weak low may form around the southern parts of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf next Tuesday, but at this stage the system is likely to be weak and not expected to develop. Very Low risk.

There are no other tropical systems in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/