Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Thursday 9 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 12 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A monsoon trough will develop across the Gulf of Carpentaria and into the Top End, with increasing shower and thunderstorm activity during the weekend. Weak transient lows may form in the Gulf of Carpentaria during the weekend and over southern Joseph Bonaparte Gulf early next week. The lows are likely to remain weak and not develop into a tropical cyclone. The ratings for the lows are Very Low for the next seven days.

There are no other tropical systems in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/