Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Friday 10 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Monday 13 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough is developing across the Gulf of Carpentaria and Top End, increasing shower and thunderstorm activity during the weekend and next week.

A tropical low (15U) is expected to develop during the weekend, near or to the northeast of the Tiwi Islands. This low is forecast to remain weak as is moves to the east southeast, near the northeast coast, and into the Gulf of Carpentaria by Monday 13 February. Once in the Gulf of Carpentaria the low may remain over water, and has a Low risk of becoming a tropical cyclone on Tuesday 14 February. From Wednesday 15 February, this tropical low may move over land and the risk of it being a tropical cyclone is Very Low. During Thursday 16 and Friday 17 February, the low may remain over land or dissipate, the risk of it being a tropical cyclone is Very Low.

There are no other tropical systems in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/