Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 12 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 15 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical low (15U) is developing along the monsoon trough near Groote Eylandt. This low is forecast to be develop further near the western Gulf of Carpentaria coast during today and early next week. While the low remains over Gulf of Carpentaria waters there is a Low risk that it will become a tropical cyclone late in the evening on Monday 13 February and a Moderate risk during the morning of Tuesday 14 February. From Wednesday 15 February, there is a Low risk of a tropical cyclone lingering into the early morning, however, the environment is less favourable and weakening is expected. During Thursday 16, Friday 17, Saturday 18 and Sunday 19 February the low may remain over land or dissipate, the risk of it being a tropical cyclone is Very Low.

There are no other tropical systems in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Monday:

Low

Tuesday:

Moderate

Wednesday:

Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/