Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 8:50 am CST on Monday 13 February 2023
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 15 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical low (15U) is developing over the western Gulf of Carpentaria coast.There is a Moderate risk on Tuesday 14th and Wednesday 15th February for the system to develop into a tropical cyclone. The low is expected to move southeast across the Gulf and make landfall over southern Gulf coast on Thursday 16th February.

Future movement would be over land, across Northern Territory during the weekend. The ratings are expected to be Very low from Friday 17th February. There is a small chance that it may push off the west Kimberley coast or over Browse Basin from Monday 20th February next week.

For more details, refer to - http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml

There are no other tropical systems in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Tuesday:

Moderate

Wednesday:

Moderate

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/